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Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Chase Claypool
- Sean Koerner — our director of predictive analytics — is highlight his favorite NFL prop bets for every slate throughout the 2020 season.
- Find out why the over on Chase Claypool’s receiving prop is Koerner’s favorite pick for the Sunday Night Football showdown between the Bills and Steelers.
|Chase Claypool Over 41.5 Rec Yards (-115)||BetMGM|
I’m “buying the dip” on Claypool after we saw his playing time get cut nearly in half last week (43% routes run).
It’s unclear why he ran behind James Washington as the WR4, but it’s worth the reminder that the Steelers lost their first game of the season as a result. I expect them to correct course here and make sure their stud rookie gets back to his usual 60-70% routes run.
One of the Steelers’ biggest issues over the past couple games has been drops. They have a combined 11 drops over the past two weeks and Claypool is the only pass-catcher who has seen 10 or more targets without a drop. I would imagine it only increases the chances we see Claypool’s usage bounce back.
Since Claypool became a full-time player in Week 3, he has gone over this total in seven of nine games. I want to invest in the talented rookie while the market sours on him after a one-game sample.
I would bet this up to 45.5 yards. As always, here are the projected chances of him going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations, but note that while my sims already give this a 55.1% chance of cashing, I like this bet even more than the numbers indicate.
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